Рынок

Какие есть соображения по поводу состояния американского рынка, в частности S&P и NASDAQ? И главное - когда топтание на месте закончится, ОНО продолжит расти или продолжит падать?

Эта статья старая. Я написал и опубликовал еще в начале 2000 года. Рынок, как известно, начал падать только в сентябре. Статья и прогноз до сих пор имеет смысл. Прошу прощения, но русского варианта я не писал и перевода не делал.

Disputable truths.

The myth about constant growth of the US stock market.

The myth that the US economy has no limits for its growth and development is the first myth I would like to talk about. Persuasion that the share prices will continue to grow forever is a myth, also. It is hard to imagine now, while looking at indexes DOW and NASDAQ, which charts represent a constantly growing curve line occasionally interrupted by rather superficial corrections. Those corrections are perceived by literally everybody, from the individual investors to the brokers and mass media, as a perfect opportunity to buy various shares on dips. Everyone seems to believe that the market growth will proceed indefinitely, and sooner or later the investor will earn some profit on his investment. Nobody seems to think that, sooner or later, this will come to an end. However, from my point of view, there are some discrepancies which are obvious but for some reason happen to be overlooked.

First of all, the fact that the market was moving in just one direction - up and only up - from the day it was created cannot guarantee that such a situation will proceed endlessly. Secondly and even more importantly, these views contradict the laws of physics and common sense which are expressed exactly by the American proverb, 'What goes up must come down.' Most important, however, is the fact that such endless growth will contradict the laws of the market itself, which are quite akin to the laws of nature and not influenced by us. The sense of these market laws which as well as 'The Law of Gravity' works irrespective of our desires, is that any rising or falling market will sooner or later make a significant correction. The size of this correction can also be predicted and even estimated in advance by using 'The Retracement Theory,' which is a fundamental part of the theory of technical analysis.

There are two basic ways to estimate a correction size, which nevertheless are close to each other. According to the Dow Theory, the market makes retracements on the following rates: 1/3, 1/2 or 2/3 of the size of the previous market rise or fall. The theory named by medieval Italian mathematician Fibonacci states that the retracements size can be defined in accordance with so-called Fibonacci ratios such as 38.2%, 50% or 62.8% from the size of a previous trend. The practice shows that, most frequently, market retracements occur according to the second levels of both theories, i.e. make up 50 % from the previous rise or fall. If you look at the chart of DJIA rise, it is immediately clear that there was not yet a similar correction in its history. The conclusion is simple: It tells us that the correction is still ahead. (Figure 1.)

Furthermore, I shall digress a bit from the scientific theories and state my point of view on some market events. My idea is based on logic and some eloquent facts, but can appear to be erroneous, since unfortunately I don't have the ability to see the future like Nostradamus did. To avoid probable accusations that I write these lines after all has already become clear and the correction really has begun, I should just warn you that whatever is stated here has already been published by me on Global-View Forex Forum in August, 1999. At that time, DJIA was at the 11.200-11.300 level, and I made a forecast that, after making some technical correction, the market would reach a new 'High' that would remain a record for a long time. After this new 'High,' a prolonged 'bear market' should start to prevail.

Even now, I cannot say with confidence whether I am right or not. It will become clear only if and when the 50% correction of DJIA really takes place as it was expected. The reasons, on the basis of which I have made the conclusions, are the following:
¨ At that moment there were rather frequent messages in mass media that the investment activity of American individual investors had reached a level never seen before. The money taken from loans was invested into the stock market, including loans received from credit cards and 'second loans.' Many American individual investors planned in advance 10-15% growth annually of their vested capitals and already put these (not received yet) incomes in their family budgets. Such investment confidence is usually a first and clear indication that the majority of investors will be robbed of their money very soon. The stop-jobbing demand on shares and active desire of 'general public' to jump into the last car of a leaving train - is a already the sign of a speeding approach of a bear market. As the rise of the market basically had occurred at the expense of loans thrown into the market, it was clear that it could not proceed for long. We can't expect further rise of the market without constant inflow of fresh capitals.
¨ The laws of physics are suitable for the financial markets as well. Everyone knows that nothing appears from out of the blue, and when something apparently disappears, it has simply transformed to another state. This should work for finance, as well. In order for one investor to earn some money, another investor has to not just part with it but offer a higher price for the shares in order that somebody who purchased them earlier would wish to sell them. This simple idea which any kids knows is for some reason not accepted among many investors who think that the laws of physics are not written for the U.S. stock market. The paradox is that the fewer people who invest money in the stock market, the more people who will lose it.
¨ The Retracement Theories are the laws of the financial markets. They work and will work no matter what. The correction approximately equal to 50% of all historical growth of the DJIA index must and will take place eventually. We can only argue from what level it will begin, and if there was a market already at its maximum or not. From my point of view, this issue is not so essential. If the correction already began and the level 11750.28 remained of maximum significance DJIA for many years ahead, the fall of the market to the level 5700-6000 would be painful, but both the economics and investors will be able to survive. It might be much worse if, after a small correction, the market goes again to storm record heights. In this case, the 50% fall from the very top of DOW will most likely cause much more serious consequences. Going down from a level (for example, at 20000, the correction should be seen to a level 10000), that is significantly bigger in absolute numbers of the index and can become more painful both for the investors and for the U.S. economy in general.
¨ A significant correction of the stock market or its transition in a 'bear market' would not be so catastrophic if not for another factor, which can also have a negative effect on the investors. It is quite possible to earn money even in a bear market if you open a 'sell short' position. (In this case, investment begins not from a purchase of the share but from its sale. By lending the shares under the lien of his investment account from the broker, the investor can sell them in the market by a current market price, and then wait to purchase them again (by less value) and to return to the broker. The profit is a difference between the price of the initial sale of the shares and their subsequent purchase.) Day traders (the short-term speculators) trade this way. However, such tactics are still unacceptable for the overwhelming majority of investors, mostly because the investment industry is not oriented to such a possibility, since 'selling short' is considered as a bad tone among U.S. stock market participants.
¨ The reason such as 'It's impossible because it could never happen' is frequently stated by my opponents as the last argument against my assumption concerning the future of the U.S. stock market. One of my friends investing significant capital in the stock market told me that he could not imagine a similar situation when the price of a share of Microsoft, for example, would become just $20. However, the event I expected to happen has already taken place in the history of the financial markets! This happened recently. The fact is so obvious and clear that nobody can deny it. It took place not in some 'banana republic' or a 'third-world country,' but in Japan, which has economic potential quite comparable with economy of the U.S. In Japan, the country with the second largest economy in the world, the Nikkei index (which is the Japanese equivalent of DJIA) made a correction from the level almost 40000 down to a level 13000 (!). (Figure 2) This means the correction took place not to the second, but all the way to the third (!) basic level in accordance with the Dow and Fibonacci theories. So, why can't something similar take place in the U.S.?

Figure 2. Nikkei index before and after the correction.

From all reasonable points of view, the significant correction of the U.S. stock market not only can but also must take place. Of course, I can't predict the exact time for that, but it seems to me that the major correction may start even this year and most likely in October-November 2000. At least NASDAQ already had time to fairly frighten the investors of a sequence of record one-day losses, and at the moment I write these lines, has already made a 25% correction. The first bell has rung out. What to do next?

Investors are in search of an alternative.

If my assumptions concerning the future of the U.S. stock market appear correct and the forecast comes true, it is possible to believe that the sweet life will, for many individual investors, come to an end soon. After the significant correction is held, the initial fright will pass, all losses will be calculated and bemoaned, and there will be questions: What to do next and where to go? In my opinion, investors will then have the following choices:

· Continue investing in the U.S. stock market in the hope of a return of the good old days.

In my opinion, such a hope will be unreasonable. Most likely, after the correction, the stock market will be in a long phase of a consolidation. For a long period of time, its fluctuations will occur in a certain range, i.e. approximately how it is going on in the Japanese stock market, where the obvious tendency of the market to fall or to rise is not present - showing a classic side trend pattern. In these conditions, it will be considerably more difficult for the individual investor to correctly choose the company in order to purchase its shares than in the past, when practically any shares grew as on yeast. The theory, according to which a long-term investment sooner or later will necessarily bring decent income, can appear untenable. To me, it seems quite probable that many, even not very elderly individuals might not live long enough to be able to benefit from such an investment during their lifetime. Most likely, the long-term investments in the stock market will be made in the hope of receiving a dividend, but not on the hope of a rise in share prices. This basically can disappoint today's spoiled investor, who used to enjoy significant capital gains every year. In my opinion, the intermediate term investments and trading could be considered as an alternative to long-term held blocks of shares.

· Investment in foreign markets. (Primarily in Asian and probably in European.)

This seems like a good idea, too, but such a decision also appears to be connected with a certain risk. The search for the correct market in order to choose the safest method and place of investment will represent an essential problem, because of the probability that correction of the American stock market will negatively affect economics of other countries. In case of significant fall of the American stock market, the chain reaction can follow worldwide and there will be no such 'well balanced' portfolio that will help investors survive. If the prices are falling everywhere, everybody loses. The last example is the summer and fall of 1998. An economic crisis in Southeast Asia and Russia, and problems in the U.S. markets, plus the sharp, sudden and very deep fall of the dollar against Japanese yen, served as the reason of enormous losses and even bankruptcy of some successful hedge-funds. Some of them were completely broke and left business, and many others still cannot recover and are suffering the consequences of those losses today.

· Short-term and 'day-trading' in the stock market.

Basically, this is not such a bad idea. The main problem is that very few people know how to do it well. The risk of losses from such gambles is large, especially for novices. This is obvious even now, when the industry of day trading is still in a rudimentary condition. This industry grows at a furious pace, and it's hard to predict how long it will proceed and any limit it will grow up to. Most likely, the number of individual traders/investors will grow actively in the next 10-15 years, but the losses among them will be significant, as well. According to statistics publicized in mass media today, more than 75% of those who relate themselves to 'day traders' lose their investment capital. To me, the number of those who lost their capital is underestimated a bit. I guess that the real percentage of losers should be closer to 90%, with 5-7% of traders remaining on a 'break even' point. All the 'cream' is collected by those 3-5% of traders and investors who really know what they're doing and can do it in a professional manner.

Investing in gold.

Most likely, this will be the first idea which will come to you after you have dragged yourself and the remains of your capital from the falling stock market. To me, there are no doubts that in case of serious cataclysms in the stock market, the price of gold will skyrocket. The question is, how long it will last and how do you benefit from it? Let us assume that you turned out lucky and got rid of your stocks earlier than others, and purchased some real gold or gold futures. You will probably pay a high price for it in the first place, because of stop-jobbing demand from the numerous investors looking for a 'safe haven' in precious metal. What are you going to do then - wait while gold will rise in price, to sell it with a maximum profit? How will you learn the right 'ceiling' price and time?

The bargain then may appear only speculative, and it will be necessary to start a new search for capital investment once again. Sitting on the purchased gold indefinitely, for the sake of safety of your capital, is unlikely to do any good. It is not too profitable, as the gold does not pay dividends. As any commodity, the gold is subject to fluctuations of supply and demand, and its price changes constantly. Secondly, the gold market is limited because there is little product to begin with. Also, gold positions in present times are not too strong. The demand for it from electronic and other industries using it for producing technical items is reducing constantly, since there were cheaper and more technological substitutes found. There is still a jewelry industry, but its needs are limited. As a treasure, gold becomes less and less attractive, also. Many states gradually reduce their gold reserves, selling surpluses and pushing the price for gold down.

Instead of this heavy metal (which should be stored somewhere, recalculated, guarded and served), many states prefer to purchase U.S. treasury bonds or other economically and politically stable countries' governmental securities. Treasury bonds do not require any service, since the records exist on a hard disk in the computer memory. What is more, interest is paid on them every year, which looks much more favorable from all points of view. Now think, why do you need something even the states turn their backs on?

· Investing in Treasury Bonds.

This idea is quite reasonable, but not absolutely. To take steps which many central banks do at first seems tempting. It is good to invest money in the safe and reliable state securities under 6-6.5% annually with the guarantee of preservation of the vested capital, and then cut coupons every year. A problem can arise if you urgently need your money and want to transform your bonds back into cash again. You will not be able to sell securities back to a state and receive cash. The state is not obliged to redeem the liabilities before the expiration indicated on them. Therefore, you should sell your securities in the free secondary market, where the law of supply and demand balance dominates. There will be no guarantee that at that moment you can receive what you have paid for your treasury bonds at the moment of its purchase. Thus, in this case. there is a risk of loss, and you have to know the situation and market condition in order to choose correctly the moment of a purchase and moment of sale of the bonds. Are you sure that you can make everything correctly and at the right time?

· Investing in savings accounts, CDs and mutual funds.

I encourage you to independently calculate benefits you may receive from such investments. It's very simple. Just take your initial investment amount, and then add to it the annual interest on the capital which you receive in case you invest your money in savings account or CDs. Then, deduct from the received sum the current inflation rate and taxes on capital gains, which should be given back to the state. If, at the end, the received total turns out to be a positive one, you may consider yourself a lucky person. You have really been lucky. You live in an uninflationary time and your state loves its citizens. Are you sure about this?

With an investment in a mutual fund, I think everything is clear. If the stock market collapsed, mutual funds will lose your money also, as we discussed earlier. So, it doesn't even make sense to be engaged in calculations of possible profits from such an investment.

I shouldn't mention such investment opportunities as investment in business and different business projects, jewelry, various collections, antiques, works of art, arms and drugs trade and so on. These have very specific spheres of interests of investors, have unpredictable incomes and losses, and are outside the theme of the given article, which is limited to questions of the free financial markets. Now, it is time to summarize our intermediate results and come to some conclusions.

If you think that all I have written up to now is just a set of banalities and you have not learned anything new or useful, I will say goodbye to you, since it wouldn't be interesting to you at all to read further.

If you find that my reasoning has a certain rationality and that I have managed to inform you about something useful and new, then, with your permission, I shall continue my literary experiences. The following theme, which I would like to stay on, will be the investment industry as it is now.

Investors and the Investment Industry.

I believe, you have already asked yourself a question: What is all this written for and how can I benefit from this? There is a whole industry called to serve the individual investors with the numerous dealers, brokers, analysts, advisers and traders that help the investors (i.e., you) to buy low and sell high. In general, the industry works as a well-adjusted mechanism. The majority of people who works in it are professional. A few cheaters and swindlers who can be found among them cannot to spoil a common satisfactory picture at all. Besides, the state monitors all laws and regulations which are set to protect the investor from the unfair and dishonest workers of the finance and investments industry.

I almost (truly and completely) agree with such an estimation, but only almost. The following facts cause my doubts:

· There is an obvious conflict of interest that exists between a broker and his client.

The conflict is that the incomes of different parties are generated from different sources. A broker's income is formed from the commissions from each trade, and consequently a broker is interested in the trades' quantity and volume. An investor's interest is in the greater profitability of transactions, small commissions and in the best overall result. At the same time, a broker's paycheck generally does not depend on an eventual return on a client's investment. Ask yourself: whose interests will appear more important for the broker if you entrust him to manage your investment capital - his or yours? You have thought correctly. The broker, too, has a family to support.

· Brokerage offices are more interested in the quantity of the clients, rather than in the real quality of their own services.

The basic criterion of a broker's success, from the point of view of any broker's company management, is not his ability to make profitable trades for the customer in the market, but the quantity of a clients' open accounts. In many if not all brokerage companies, there is a quota on the number of clients that a broker should open accounts for within a specific period of time. If he cannot, then he gets fired.

· A broker does not take any responsibility for possible losses.

At the moment of opening an account with a broker, an investor simultaneously (with the agreement and power of attorney) signs a risk disclosure statement and completely accepts responsibility for possible losses of his investment capital. Otherwise, nobody would accept money from him. Thereby he completely releases the broker of any responsibility for destiny of his capital, and the broker is free to do practically everything with it.

· The investment industry mainly serves the purpose of satisfying its own needs.

Even if the investor does not trust the broker to manage his capital and so makes decisions independently using accessible information or advice of the same broker or adviser, he can turn out deceived or deluded freely or involuntarily. Usually I do not read the financial newspapers or journals, but I have the television business channel CNBC constantly turned on. It strikes me that the overwhelming majority of guests on the programs talk a lot about when and what to buy, but practically nobody tells you when and what to sell in order to save an accumulated profit. Achieving the constant presence of an investor in the market, investment of large capitals and profit reinvestment is the basic purpose of the majority of the workers of the financial industry, since it allows them to exist comfortably. First of all, they care about their own profits and interests. As for the investor, he has to be lucky to be able to generate a good return on his investments under such tough conditions. Constant pressing and aiming an investor on a purchase creates unjustified frenzy in the market and over-evaluates many securities. Have you heard the joke, 'Two out of every three market participants are always profitable. One is a dealer, the second is a broker. How about an investor? Well, someone has to lose!'

· Information and recommendations offered to an investor can be misleading.

This can take place intentionally, as the result of incompetence or simply an unintentional mistake. Even good professionals are not free from mistakes and miscalculations, which basically an investor pays for. There are many examples, but I will show only one. Here is DJIA chart represented on the picture. (Figure 3)

Figure 2. Triple top formation on DJIA daily bar chart. The break of
the red line is a signal to sell.

When the market has reached the point indicated by the arrow, the comment I heard on CNBC was as follows: 'The market has formed three consistently raising tops and three consistently raising bottoms, that in accordance with technical analysis should be considered as a bullish signal.' However, ten out of ten technical traders will tell you that the pattern which you see on this picture is called a triple top formation, which in our case was slightly displaced horizontally. Triple top is a reversal pattern, and in this case, is also confirmed by triple divergence on the MACD indicator. According to the principles of technical analysis, it is considered as a strong bearish signal, which then was confirmed by a deep market correction. That was a perfect time to get out of the market, at least temporarily, but not to buy more. Who has paid for a mislead? I think the answer is obvious - the investor has.

· The investments industry enjoys the large trust of an investor because, for a long period, the market was in a constant uptrend.

The unique historical cut of a constant and fast rise in prices on the shares allowed for making profitable investment portfolio without any trouble. An investor almost always gains some profit by purchasing and holding shares during a more or less long period of time. The situation will be changed radically if the market enters the long stage of consolidation when the prices of shares will fluctuate on a bigger scale. The formation of a balanced investment portfolio will be considerably more cautious and selective. The time frame of keeping the purchased shares will be narrowed, and the portfolio should be renewed much more often. The correct choice of stock for a purchase or even the financial market for investments will be much more difficult, and not many brokers have the experience to productively function in such a situation.

Это вторая часть, или update к первой статье.
Прогноз действителен и сегодня.

What was thrown up is coming down. ('Disputable Truths' Update).

I just red my old article 'Disputable truths' for the first time since it was written (more than a year ago) and think that now it's a good time for a brief update.

Let's discuss what has already happened and what is going to happen next. The question 'why?' is not important at all since there is no way we can benefit from such a knowledge. The answer on this question always comes too late. Besides there are thousands of professional market analysts who make their livings answering it and explaining us why millions and millions of individual investors got stripped out of their money lately and it's not my job to compete with them.

First, I think, it makes sense to start with the question 'What?'. What has happened for the last year? On my opinion the description of the process is very simple and you can see it in a headline of this article. What was thrown up is coming down now. In accordance with natural laws discovered and formulated by Sir Isaac Newton (http://www.treasure-troves.com/bios/Newton.html) the market did just what it was supposed to. It started to decline. There are several significant moments that I would like to make now in concern to the current market situation in order to clarify the picture we can see now. Here is how the current situation looks like from my personal point of view:

1. The market has run out of money.
As it was expected in my previous article the day came when the buyers are no longer able to satisfy selling interest and the shortage of fresh capital in the stock market became obvious. Just recently there were a couple of virtually not so important but interesting facts that caught my attention. Both of them were related to the issue we're discussing now. The first one was the interview with one of the top MBNA's officials in regards to some changes in the US bankruptcy law. (MBNA is the biggest financial institution providing credit cards services). That representative favored the tightening of a bankruptcy law stating that on his opinion too many irresponsible credit card holders invested the money taken from credit cards into the stock market, lost it and are trying now to get away with it. I think pretty much the same situation is seen with second loans as well. The conclusion is simple, there is no fresh money on the individual investors' level to buy stocks and support the falling market. The other interesting sign of it is the fact that one of the major US brokerage companies laid off 13% of their employees because of the market conditions. Apparently, the investors' community, lately experiencing heavy casualties, can't provide enough commissions for the investment industry to operate normally and to generate enough income for itself.

2. Investment portfolios are useless at the moment.
Investors use their portfolios in order to reduce a risk of picking a wrong stock at a wrong time. In other words an investor needs to have a portfolio in order to stay with the main flow of the market. Such diversification strategy definitely makes sense in a bull market because the probability that a majority of the stocks chosen for a portfolio are in declining mode at the moment is relatively slim. In a bear market the situation is quite the opposite. In this case a portfolio works rather as a negative factor because it still allows an investor to stay with the general market flow, but since the general direction of the market is down then it's easy to understand that such strategy doesn't make sense any more. From a common sense point of view it's obvious, that the wider is the selection of the stocks in a portfolio the bigger is the statistical probability that an investor will eventually lose on his investment. Now it would be better to pick one particular stock at a time and stick with it for a while. In order to illustrate this thought I would like you to consider a very simple practical example.
Let's imagine that you're hungry and have 100 apples in the basket to chose from and the ratio between good and rotten apples in this basket is 1:4. If you're picking just one of them with your eyes closed then the probability to chose a good one is 20%. This percentage shows how big your chance for a good fresh meal is. However if you make a 'portfolio' out of twenty apples then inevitably the number of rotten ones that you're about to eat is at least the same as the number of good ones. (But anyway, statistically the rotten apples have a bigger chance to prevail on your dinner table with the same probability of 80%). Anything above 20 apples in your 'dinner portfolio' definitely will make you sick. You can argue with me on the ground that it would make more sense to choose apples with the eyes wide open, but where were your eyes for the last year when even most of the professional 'apple-pickers' got their stomachs upset?
Probably some of you still remember what happened to one of the biggest and most successful in the past hedge funds 'Long Term Capital Management' back in late summer of 1998, when all of a sudden its diversified and heavily leveraged portfolio just deteriorated within a couple of month causing severe losses of over 80% of its capital because all the markets they invested in (including foreign) took a dive almost simultaneously.
In order to survive in a bear market the best possible way would be to create some sort of a 'negative portfolio'. This idea is very simple but sounds like a blasphemy for those who used to believe in the myth of constant growth of the US stock market. 'Negative portfolio' means that, instead of looking for undervalued stocks for the purpose of buying, it would make sense to do the opposite and look for overvalued stocks in order to sell them short. In this case the probability to get some profits is much better but some certain portion of 'blind patriotism' has to be sacrificed in sake of income.

3. The conflict of interests between the investment industry and an individual investor is broadening.
In a bear market the conflict of interests (that I was talking about in my previous article) between the investment industry and an individual investor is broadening. The reason for that is obvious. As any other industry this one has to be profitable as its workers also have families to feed. In order to stay profitable the investment industry has to generate enough commissions that individual investors and other clients pay for their services. The only way to accomplish this task is to continue convincing investors to invest even if the market conditions are not so good and it would be better to stay out of the market for a while. Besides, this particular 'while' seems to take longer than is predicted by most of the market analysts, who however have no other choice but to call for a bottom of a major correction always every day on the market's way down. Different talking heads appearing every day on your TV screens in news reports and on business channels are trying to encourage you to stay in the market and to buy on every dip promising good returns on the investment some time in the future. However you have to remember that this is their job to convince you to stay in the market under any circumstances even if the timing is not favorable for an investor. This is the rule of the game. These people just do what they are supposed to. Even if some of them truly believe that the timing is wrong and have already pulled out of the market their own capitals. They have to survive, trying to keep and protect their jobs at any cost that is likely to be paid out of the investors' pockets. Others just don't understand what is going on with the market and their wishful thinking mode often blocks their ability to see the situation clearly.

4. Technical picture confirms that the US stock market is in a bearish mode now.
Looking at the charts I can see that there is a high probability that we have already seen the longer-term major tops established on the major indexes such as DOW, NASDAQ and S&P. Technology stocks look a bit better simply because they are definitely in an oversold territory after breaking all the reasonable retracement levels in accordance with Dow and Fibonacci theories. We're in a bear market now and every possible upside rally is rather to be considered as a correction of the downtrend providing an opportunity to sell on up ticks. No market is a one-way street and some corrections will certainly take place. However the most current low on NASDAQ 100 is still short of its measured objective technical target located at below 1000 and probably as low as 750-780. (Picture 1.)
On DJIA the picture looks a bit different. As you can see on the monthly charts (Picture 2.) this index technically was able to stay within the formation that looks like a broadening triangle. Another approach to the red line is likely to be seen some time in one or two years period from now and in this case the break lower will be imminent reaching one of the technical levels in accordance with one of the retracement theories.
The worst technical picture seems to be on S&P monthly charts. It is approaching now the most important long-term technical support (red line), which has to be broken in the nearest future what most likely will lead to a free fall targeting the level of 600 (yellow line). (Picture 3.)

If to apply some common sense and statistical approach then we can take a look back in history and notice that every economy cycle usually takes 10 years. The last time when the US economy bottomed out was in 1990 reaching its top at year 2000 after that. So, it would be logical to assume that the next long-term bottom will also be seen in ten years period starting from the year 2000 and can be expected some time in 2009-10.

Picture 1. NASDAQ 100 monthly chart. The yellow line is a potential target.

Picture 2. DJIA monthly chart. The yellow line is a potential target.

Picture 3. S&P monthly chart. The yellow line is a potential target.

Более поздний кусок написанный после 09.11.

The 'War against terrorism' and the markets. (US and Global Markets' outlook.)

1. US stock market outlook.

I would like to start this article with making a statement that my strong belief is that it would be a mistake to think that a terrorist attack on the USA as well as any other fundamental event will ever be able to make a dramatic change in longer-term market outlook. I believe it is true for any market and any fundamental event. The market will still continue to behave in accordance with its technical picture and one or another fundamental event can only be used to explain afterwards what has already happened in the past rather then making more or less accurate projection for the future. I also think that technical analysis can help in predicting some of the future fundamental events that are going to take place some time in the future however without being too specific on the nature of such an event. (Despite I know the majority of traders and analysts most likely will disagree with this statement, I guess the answer on a philosophical question: 'What comes first, an egg or a chicken?' - is just a matter of personal preference.)
Let me start with my expectations about what is going to happen with the US stock market. I'm going to cut this issue short since I have already expressed my opinion on it not long ago in my previous article titled 'What was thrown up is coming down'. There is no change in my longer-term outlook and I still insist on my view that starting from the year 2000 the US stock market (as well a the US economy in general) have entered a period of decline as it was predicted in my article 'Disputable truth' written in May, 2000. The stock market and the economy will continue to behave in accordance with their cycles and it would make sense to believe that they both will not bottom out before making a correction in accordance with the retracement theory. Therefore the most reasonable outlook for the next several years would be to expect some sort of general decline for the major indexes such as DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ that from time to time will be interrupted by some positive corrections. It should be a similar picture to what we have already witnessed on the Japanese Nikkei index.
During the last two weeks both key technical supports on the DJIA and S&P got broken and the market has extended its losses significantly after that. (See the pictures #1 and #2.) For now both former supports are providing technical resistances.
Most analytics are blaming the terrorist attack on the US in what happened to the US stock market ignoring the fact that by that time the US economy had already shown all the signs of coming recession and the US stock market decline. On my opinion, the fundamentals, meaning the recent and current world events, have only brought that time sooner.

Picture #1. The key support on the DJIA (red line) has been broken. Both yellow trendlines became longer-term targets and are likely to provide technical supports.

Picture #2. The key support on the S&P (red line) has also been broken. The yellow lines indicate longer-term targets and most likely will serve as strong technical supports.

2. Global markets outlook.

I think that it would be wrong to think that the problems that the US economy and the stock market have will not affect negatively the global economy in general. The foreign markets are very likely to follow the US markets and there will be no safe heaven for an investor anywhere abroad when it comes to investing in stocks. The 'war against terrorism' that could rather be called a war between civilizations is likely to become a long shot. It's military and political ups and downs; successes and failures will be reflected in all the stock markets around the world simultaneously. Therefore a modern investor in order to succeed has to forget a habit of buying and sitting on the stocks indefinitely and is better to be ready to act rather like a trader buying and selling stocks on technical signals. However the best market that on my point of view is able to provide perfect investment opportunity is the FOREX market representing the only true value market in the world. I also think that this market is about to start a strong longer-term trend and the dollar has the reason and the ability to get much stronger over next few years period of time. My reasons are as following:

First of all, it is still has to be viewed as the safe haven currency when any kind of uncertainty hits the world. It has always been the case back in history and is likely to be the same way in the future starting to gain its value as soon as the first US attack on the terrorism takes place.
Second, on the FOREX market the dollar technically doesn't look too bearish at the moment against the other major currencies. The technical picture for it doesn't look too bad and its longer-term up-trend is likely to resume soon. I guess, it has a very limited potential on the downside, probably bottoming out against some other major currencies as soon as some time this or the next week.

Гамблер, браво.
Владею английским. Но после статьи добавлю: плохо 😊
Хотя тоже на гражданке журналист 😊

Хорошая статья.

НОС

Из неопубликованного. Так и не нашел времени дописать. Можно сказать, что поленился.

'The Magic Field in the Land of Fools'.

Some of you probably know (while others don't) that there was another Pinocchio like character in the world's literature. Russian writer of the first half of the 20-th century count Alexey Tolstoy wrote the book called 'The adventures of Buratino'. Inspired by well-known Old Italian story about a boy made of wood with a long nose that he was sticking into every possible trouble on his way, the author presented his own version of Pinocchio's adventures. The name of Russian Pinocchio is Buratino.

As it has been described in the book while going through a lot of adventures Buratino ones met a couple of crooks from the animal kingdom that were able to convince him to seed the golden coins that he was given by his adopted father in the place called 'The Magic Field' located in 'The Land of Fools'. He was promised that when the time comes the golden trees will emerge out of those coin seeds featuring gold coins as tree leaves. Then it should be the right moment for harvesting:

The more I watch business channels and read papers the more I feel that most of the medias are threatening general investors' community like poor and naive 'buratinos'. An average investor while watching and reading is coming under the enormous pressure of so called 'market experts', 'investment advisors', 'trading advisors' and 'fund managers'. The fact that most of them are fully legit and legal, properly registered and licensed does not automatically mean that they know exactly how to make an investor richer and thus happier. In many instances their credentials rather turn into a famous James Bond's 'license to kill'. Such an expression of course should not be taken as a direct threat to someone's life or health but can seriously damage both in indirect way as a result of at least partial loss of the funds and savings hardly earned and then eagerly invested in stocks. In order to come to this conclusion someone does not need to be a professional investigator or a financial wizard himself. Just take a look into your own financial records and figure out how much money you have made for the last couple of years investing in the US stock market. Most probably there was more or less significant loss recorded there. Then turn around and ask your relatives, friends and neighbors how much profit they made on their investments in the US stocks for the last two years since the market has reached it's top in April of 2000. Most likely their situation on this part will be similar to yours. Is there any solution for the common problem that most of the investors currently have? I'm not sure that there could be a simple and easy answer for this question, but think that there is something that could make your investments at least more sophisticated and returns more encouraging. On my opinion the best tool that an investor might have in order to avoid some major disappointments is his/her own common sense. This is something that a vast majority of all humans have but unfortunately not everyone knows how to apply this powerful tool to their own investment management. We can talk about it a bit further but before coming to this part I would like to make a few comments on the past and current US stock market situation and the investment industry in general. I hope that you would agree with me on some of my basic thoughts that I'm about to present.

1. 'The US investment industry is not currently ready to serve the interests of general investors' population.'

As I already mentioned in my previous articles I have a habit of watching TV business channels which are definitely a very important part of the US investment industry. My favorite is CNBC that I consider being the best soap opera of the modern times, which is also likely to stay this way for at least another decade. It is truly an intellectual pleasure to follow their 'shows' on a regular basis. If to put aside mountains of mostly boring and outdated factual information that this channel provides to the investors, we can see a dramatic storyline stretching out right before our eyes. This 'tragicomedy' could be called 'Quest for the bottom'. At first glance (as well as at the second and the third ones) it looks like a serious competition between numerous invited guests calling for the bottom of so-called 'correction'. They do it each and every day since the moment when the fact of the US stock market entered its decline mode finally became obvious even to the dumbest ones. Most of those talking heads on the screen are very well spoken and extremely convincing. Their dramatic competition looks very exciting if to follow it on regular basis.
There are also some comedian stars presenting a good sense of healthy humor. My most recent favorite joke is the statement of one of the investment fund managers about his fund's returns made within the past year. He said something like: 'Our fund beats the market by 9% so far this year and we're proud of it.' At first I didn't understand what it means, but when I finally got it I just started laughing like crazy. It means that the fund has actually lost the money but those losses were 9% short of the total stock market devaluation that took place within the same time frame. What a great achievement to be proud of! I would give that manager my personal medal of honor. If not for his professional qualities but for a nice sense of humor.
I would recommend you not to miss the show. Enjoy it. It's free. Not exactly, of course, but in any case it has already been paid for and probably even with your own money. Take it easy. Enjoy the show. Life goes on.

NOS
Гамблер, браво.
Владею английским. Но после статьи добавлю: плохо 😊
Хотя тоже на гражданке журналист 😊

Хорошая статья.

НОС

Спасибо за комплимент, НОС, я старался. 😊

Gambler,

Идея понятна, спасибо. Очень рекомендую ввести в свой писательский репертуар раздел под названием "executive summary".

AT
Gambler,

Идея понятна, спасибо. Очень рекомендую ввести в свой писательский репертуар раздел под названием "executive summary".

В своем писательском репертуаре я имею такой раздел. Я его удалил из этих статей, чтобы вы своими мозгами сами шевелили.

Ну и зря. Зачем напрасно заставлять людей мозгами шевелить? Тем более, для меня лично как миним 99% написанного ничего нового не сказало. Я занимался этими делами в свое время, пока интерес был, и представление о вопросе имел примерно такое же.

AT
Ну и зря. Зачем напрасно заставлять людей мозгами шевелить? Тем более, для меня лично как миним 99% написанного ничего нового не сказало. Я занимался этими делами в свое время, пока интерес был, и представление о вопросе имел примерно такое же.

Зачем тогда вопросы задавал, если и так все знаешь? Тем более если интерес раньше был, а сейчас его нету? "Нету интереса" я также понимаю, как попадалово на бабки, которое произошло вместе со всей толпой. Так?

Gambler

Зачем тогда вопросы задавал, если и так все знаешь? Тем более если интерес раньше был, а сейчас его нету? "Нету интереса" я также понимаю, как попадалово на бабки, которое произошло вместе со всей толпой. Так?

Вопрос задавал потому, что стал задумываться, что с деньгами делать. Поигрывал я в основном с NASDAQ 100 futures с конца 1998 до начала-середины 2000. В основном вышел из рынка в феврале 2000, окончательно - в августе 2000. Немного попал конечно, не без этого. А перестал заниматься постоянно из-за того, что именно потерял интерес. Поначалу было действительно интересно, но ввиду отсутствия разнообразия и не видя общестенной пользы от такой работы интерес этот угас.

AT
Вопрос задавал потому, что стал задумываться, что с деньгами делать. Поигрывал я в основном с NASDAQ 100 futures с конца 1998 до начала-середины 2000. В основном вышел из рынка в феврале 2000, окончательно - в августе 2000. Немного попал конечно, не без этого. А перестал заниматься постоянно из-за того, что именно потерял интерес. Поначалу было действительно интересно, но ввиду отсутствия разнообразия и не видя общестенной пользы от такой работы интерес этот угас.

Ничего ты со своими деньгами сейчас не сделаешь. Рынок будет падать еще лет шесть. Торговать накоротке ума не хватит, а инвестировать в стоки нет смысла. Недвижимость overpriced, а бонды ничего не платят. Лучше коллекционируй бриллианты. Их и с собой унести можно будет, если жареным запахнет. 😊

Gambler

Ничего ты со своими деньгами сейчас не сделаешь. Рынок будет падать еще лет шесть. Торговать накоротке ума не хватит, а инвестировать в стоки нет смысла. Недвижимость overpriced, а бонды ничего не платят. Лучше коллекционируй бриллианты. Их и с собой унести можно будет, если жареным запахнет. 😊

На счет 6 лет - это конечно засада. Кстати знаменательный момент. Мы как-то бухали в пятницу в баре на моей старой работе. Я сидел и трепался тогда с нашим VP и сказал ему что сейчас самое время вновь длинные позиции открывать. Было это в октябре 2002 - как раз в день абсолютного минимума. Угадал день в день. А вот сейчас не уверен, в какую сторону оно двинется, когда двинется. Так что возражать, что будет дальше консолидироваться, не буду.
Торговать накоротке не хватит скорее даже не ума а "кишек" - уж больно страшное это занятие. Да и времени сейчас совершенно нет, даже для "длинных" торгов. Про недвижимость я тоже такого же мнения. Пока что буду снимать, а там - посмотрим.

AT
На счет 6 лет - это конечно засада. Кстати знаменательный момент. Мы как-то бухали в пятницу в баре на моей старой работе. Я сидел и трепался тогда с нашим VP и сказал ему что сейчас самое время вновь длинные позиции открывать. Было это в октябре 2002 - как раз в день абсолютного минимума. Угадал день в день. А вот сейчас не уверен, в какую сторону оно двинется, когда двинется. Так что возражать, что будет дальше консолидироваться, не буду.
Торговать накоротке не хватит скорее даже не ума а "кишек" - уж больно страшное это занятие. Да и времени сейчас совершенно нет, даже для "длинных" торгов. Про недвижимость я тоже такого же мнения. Пока что буду снимать, а там - посмотрим.

В течение 6 лет рынок будет ниже, чем был в 2002. ДОУ придет к 5300-5600 и может даже ниже. Куда-нибудь к 3500 вполне возможно. S&P - примерно на 600. Доллар будет дорожать до конца года. К паритету на евро и примерно 1.60 к фунту. В валютные торги на форекс не суйся - наиппут или все бабки потеряют, или то и другое вместе.

У меня в самый разгар подъёма акций во второй половине 90-х была уверенность во всём Гамблером описанном. Без цифр и рассчётов (математик из меня никакой). Просто дух времени был такой-клинтоновский. То есть жуль , как можешь, всё равно не поймают. Акции были дутые, трещать они начали где-то в Марте 2000 г. . То есть даже треска ещё не было, но что-то в атмосфере переменилось. А в Сентябре посыпались.
При этом ограбленными оказались сотни тысяч народу.
Жить стали в период бума на широкую ногу, предполагая растущую ценность бумаг, потом оказались у разбитого корыта.
Статья прекрасная, прогнозы не очень утешительные.

Gambler
В течение 6 лет рынок будет ниже, чем был в 2002. ДОУ придет к 5300-5600 и может даже ниже. Куда-нибудь к 3500 вполне возможно. S&P - примерно на 600.

Прогноз конечно мрачный, но я скорее склонен с ним согласиться, чем возражать. Хуже всего то, что чтобы в этом рынке делать деньги, как мне видится, нужно затрачивать очень уж много энергии и времени. Т.е. постоянно "держать руку на пульсе".

Gambler
Доллар будет дорожать до конца года. К паритету на евро и примерно 1.60 к фунту. В валютные торги на форекс не суйся - наиппут или все бабки потеряют, или то и другое вместе.

С валютными спекуляциями я никогда не разбирался и не планирую. Мне кажется, там нужна очень серьезная квалификация, чтобы понимать что к чему.

AT
С валютными спекуляциями я никогда не разбирался и не планирую. Мне кажется, там нужна очень серьезная квалификация, чтобы понимать что к чему.

Я в основном занимаюсь именно валютой, хотя и по индексам иногда консультирую. Форекс -самый прибыльный рынок на мой взгляд. Но... Я лично знавал несколько сотен трейдеров, но успешных из них было только около полудюжины. Все с опытом работы от 6-7 до 20 лет и более. Все - профессионалы. Из них двоих учил я сам и один какое-то время (несколько лет) работал у меня на подхвате. Любителям там совсем нет места. Гиблое дело. 😞

2 ИГРОК
спасибо за информазиу и разяснения
ради таких как ты стоит на форум приходить

Я тебя потерял вот здесь :
Secondly and even more importantly, these views contradict the laws of physics and common sense which are expressed exactly by the American proverb, 'What goes up must come down.' Законы физики не распостроняются на макроэкономические процессы и кто как не ты должен это знать.Любые предсказания на срок более трех-четырех кварталов есть гадание на кофейной гуще,причем если ты таки да угадываешь сейчас это не означает что так будет длится вечно 😛

xwing
Я тебя потерял вот здесь :
[b]Secondly and even more importantly, these views contradict the laws of physics and common sense which are expressed exactly by the American proverb, 'What goes up must come down.' Законы физики не распостроняются на макроэкономические процессы и кто как не ты должен это знать.Любые предсказания на срок более трех-четырех кварталов есть гадание на кофейной гуще,причем если ты таки да угадываешь сейчас это не означает что так будет длится вечно 😛 [/B]

Это было безусловно литературным оборотом. Конечно же лучше не упоминать физику при рассуждениях о рынке. Общие моменты есть, т.к. некоторые процессы и там и там описываются одинаковыми уравнеиями, но на популярном уровне этого лучше не затрагивать.

AT

Это было безусловно литературным оборотом. Конечно же лучше не упоминать физику при рассуждениях о рынке. Общие моменты есть, т.к. некоторые процессы и там и там описываются одинаковыми уравнеиями, но на популярном уровне этого лучше не затрагивать.

На самом деле здесь очень большое значение оказывает фактор отношения спроса и предложения. В данном случае, в 2000-2002 годах большая часть индивидуальных инвесторов остались без денег и с ощущением обжигания на молоке. Теперь опредененное время они будут накапливать капитал и дуть на воду. С тем, что это займет именно 10 лет я не обязательно согласен, но в целом идея правильная.

Если уж подходить по-научному, и считать 10 лет мат. ожиданием, то стат. ошибка будет 3 года и должно быть 10 +/-3. Отклонение в три сигмы может вполне иметь место.

Осталось только доказать,что цифра 10 не взята с потолка. Касаемо дуть на воду - публика дура,плюс не все играли и не все из игравших проигрывали.Много таких,которые сперва заработали что-то потом потеряли что-то.И не всегда в минусе.И потм - если пойдет переть как перло в эпоху .com - понесут денюшки как миленькие.Не надо недооценивать психологическую значимость понятия "халява" 😊

Недвижимость во Флориде пробивает крышу и улетает за всякие пределы. Мой участок удвоился в цене за год. За два предыдущие года утроился или больше. То что стоило 6 тысяч сейчас стоит 30 и больше. Сейчас огромный интерес среди жителей русского нордоста наметился по отношению к нескольким городам на востоке штата. Если есть бабки могу конкретно сказать, что на западном побережьи в графстве Сарасота стоит офигенный строительный бум.

И в Аризоне строительный бум, сам видел.
Это, ИМХО, может быть связано с ведением бизнеса посредством интернета. Народ с деньгами и компютером больше не привязан к мегаполисам и селится в местах с меньшими налогами и лучшим климатом.

bezkum
2 ИГРОК
спасибо за информазиу и разяснения
ради таких как ты стоит на форум приходить

На здоровье. Рад был, что хоть кому-то моя писанина пригодилась.

Скажу и я спасибо. Очень приятно видеть, что твои дилетантские мысли подтверждают профессионалы. Это я о применимости физических законов к экономике.
И вообще очень интересно. Спасибо! Еше есть?

xwing
] Законы физики не распостроняются на макроэкономические процессы и кто как не ты должен это знать.Любые предсказания на срок более трех-четырех кварталов есть гадание на кофейной гуще,причем если ты таки да угадываешь сейчас это не означает что так будет длится вечно 😛

Ну, скажем так, что это рассуждения типичного образованного дилетанта. Хотя АТ был в общем-то прав и в данном контексте ссылка на Ньютона была шуткой юмора и литературным оборотом, но в каждой шутке есть доля шутки. К сожалению за неимением времени и места я не могу изложить всех своих мыслей по поводу влияния на рынок законов природы в том числе и физических. Но я надеюсь, что как профессионалу вы мне поверите, что таоке имеет место быть.

Что-же касается прогнозирования, то тут нескольтко иное. Прогнозировать в принципе можно и нужно, но только работает это по-разному. К примеру легче прогнозировать на более длительный период времени, чем на короткие промежутки. Значительно легче прогнозировать ценовые уровни нежели временные периоды, когда эти уровне будут достигнуты. При всем при том, что за последние 10-12 лет я не так уж часто ошибался в долгосрочных (несколько месяцев и более)прогнозах. Могу припомнить, что такое случилось только один раз. Тем не менее ясновидением я не обладаю и, более того, в реальном рынке никогда не торгую даже на свои собственные прогнозы.

При всем при том, что за последние 10-12 лет я не так уж часто ошибался в долгосрочных (несколько месяцев и более)прогнозах
Ну несколько месяцев и десять лет - несколько разные порядки,не находите? В пределах года - охотно верю.В макроэкономические прогнозы на 10 летний период - извините нет. Касаемо влияния законов природы на экономику - ессно наводнение или землятресение скажется на состоянии рынков.Правда прогнозировать землетрясения так же трудно,как и состояние экономики в 2014 году из 2004 года. 9-11 кто-либо предпологал? Нет. Т.е. сейчас задним умом провидцев полно но на самом деле ни один разумный аналитик не рассматривал вероятность попадания Боинга 777 в башню WTC как сколь-нибудь серьезно.Однако оно случилось.

Ну, скажем так, что это рассуждения типичного образованного дилетанта Я не претендую на роль эксперта.

xwing
[b]При всем при том, что за последние 10-12 лет я не так уж часто ошибался в долгосрочных (несколько месяцев и более)прогнозах
Ну несколько месяцев и десять лет - несколько разные порядки,не находите? В пределах года - охотно верю.В макроэкономические прогнозы на 10 летний период - извините нет. Касаемо влияния законов природы на экономику - ессно наводнение или землятресение скажется на состоянии рынков.Правда прогнозировать землетрясения так же трудно,как и состояние экономики в 2014 году из 2004 года. 9-11 кто-либо предпологал? Нет. Т.е. сейчас задним умом провидцев полно но на самом деле ни один разумный аналитик не рассматривал вероятность попадания Боинга 777 в башню WTC как сколь-нибудь серьезно.Однако оно случилось.[/B]

Неверно. Вы путаете разные вещи. Я не экономист и мои прогнозы не экономические. Они чисто ценовые. Рыночные цены, а особенно валютные курсы, не зависят от экономики напрямую. Более того, я сейчас скажу ересь, но вы меня все равно простите. Дело в том (я это утверждаю уже много лет), что такие события как попадание боинга в небоскреб в принципе можно спрогнозировать именно на основе ценового прогноза, а не наоборот. Проблема только в том, что невозможно заранее предугадать какое именно событие приведет к тому, что цены пришли к заранее спрогнозированному уровню.

Xwing,

На основании своего скромного опыта могу подтвердить вышесказанное. Поведения цен мало зависят от макроэкономических событий, а определяются в основном соотношением спроса и предложения на подлежащий товар, т.е. ликвидностью и наличие капитала. А дальше работают законы статистики.

Mosinman
Скажу и я спасибо. Очень приятно видеть, что твои дилетантские мысли подтверждают профессионалы. Это я о применимости физических законов к экономике.
И вообще очень интересно. Спасибо! Еше есть?

И вам тоже на здоровье. Вообще-то я еще и книжку издал в прошлом году, но она не интересная. Слишком узкоспециальная и я ее никому кроме профессионалов не рекомендую. Мы можем просто потрепаться на околорыночные темы, если вам интересно. Могу и чего-нибудь веселенького подкинуть. Ну вот это, например.

The Day the NASDAQ Died (tune of American Pie)

A long, long week ago I can still remember how the market used to make me smile
What I'd do when I had the chance
Is get myself a cash advance
And add another tech stock to the pile.
But Alan Greenspan made me shiver
With every speech that he delivered
Bad news on the rate front
Still I'd take one more punt
I can't remember if I cried
When I heard about the CPI
I lost my fortune and my pride
The day the NASDAQ died

So bye-bye to my piece of the pie
Now I'm getting calls for margin
'Cause my cash account's dry
It's just two weeks from a new all-time high
And now we're right back where we were in July
We're right back where we were in July

Did you buy stocks you never heard of?
QCOM at 150 or above?
'Cause George Gilder told you so
Now do you believe in Home Depot?
Can Wal-Mart save your portfolio?
And can you teach me what's a P/E ratio?
Well, I know that you were leveraged too
So you can't just take a long-term view
Your broker shut you down
No more margin could be found
I never worried on the whole way up
Buying 'dot coms' from the back of a pickup truck
But Friday I ran out of luck
It was the day the NAAAASDAQ died:

From: Andy Serwer at Fortune Magazine

Gambler
......

Lepricon
Гэмблер, научи (бесплатно), как заработать миллионы, по-быстренькому 😀

По-быстренькому это в Лас-Вегас.Там оно вернее будет.Этим ИМХО надо или заниматся очень серьезно или не лезть.Я не лезу.У меня на такую деятельность нервов не хватит.

Lepricon
Гэмблер, научи (бесплатно), как заработать миллионы, по-быстренькому 😀

Это очень просто. Купи за доллар у фермера яблоко. Помой его, почисти и продай на рынке за два. На два доллара купи два яблока, помой и продай за четыре. А потом пусть у тебя умрет дядя Изя и оставит тебе в наследство 10 миллионов. 😉

Gambler
Это очень просто. Купи за доллар у фермера яблоко. Помой его, почисти и продай на рынке за два. На два доллара купи два яблока, помой и продай за четыре. А потом пусть у тебя умрет дядя Изя и оставит тебе в наследство 10 миллионов. 😉

Gambler

Это очень просто. Купи за доллар у фермера яблоко. Помой его, почисти и продай на рынке за два. На два доллара купи два яблока, помой и продай за четыре. А потом пусть у тебя умрет дядя Изя и оставит тебе в наследство 10 миллионов. 😉

А можно пропустить эту стадию с яблоками? Или это обязательная часть программы? 😊

Gambler

Неверно. Вы путаете разные вещи. Я не экономист и мои прогнозы не экономические. Они чисто ценовые. Рыночные цены, а особенно валютные курсы, не зависят от экономики напрямую. Более того, я сейчас скажу ересь, но вы меня все равно простите. Дело в том (я это утверждаю уже много лет), что такие события как попадание боинга в небоскреб в принципе можно спрогнозировать именно на основе ценового прогноза, а не наоборот. Проблема только в том, что невозможно заранее предугадать какое именно событие приведет к тому, что цены пришли к заранее спрогнозированному уровню.

Но ведь валютные курсы в какой-то зависят от политики не так ли? А тут тоже прогнозировать нелегко? Или я неправ?

xwing
А можно пропустить эту стадию с яблоками? Или это обязательная часть программы? 😊

Неа, не выйдет. Мы-же про рынок говорим. 😛

xwing
Но ведь валютные курсы в какой-то зависят от политики не так ли? А тут тоже прогнозировать нелегко? Или я неправ?

Зависят. Или принято считать, что зависят. Но на самом деле не от политических или экономических событий как таковых, а от их интерпретации. А как известно, сколько людей, столько и мнений. Наши споры на форуме это вполне наглядно показывают.

Но идея, которую я вам высказал, более нетрадиционная, что-ли. Я утверждаю, что не события влияют на цены, а цены могут вызвать события. Т.е. причинно-следственная связь в действительности может оказаться вполне парадоксальной. Например можно сказать, что не удар боинга в небоскреб вызвал падение доллара, а необходимость для доллара совершить коррекцию привела к тому, что самолет врезался в здание, в результате чего возникла формальная причина оправдывающая эту коррекцию.

Это подразумевает наличие процессов необычайной сложности. Ваша теория интересна и я не могу сказать что взялся бы отрицать ее. Более того,мне она нравится.Но даже если подобный механизм существует то мы никогда не постигнем принципов его работы.

xwing
Это подразумевает наличие процессов необычайной сложности. Ваша теория интересна и я не могу сказать что взялся бы отрицать ее. Более того,мне она нравится.Но даже если подобный механизм существует то мы никогда не постигнем принципов его работы.

Мне тоже кажется, что понять не получится. Но научиться практическому использованию я думаю можно. К сожалению математические модели и компьютерные программы на искусственном интеллекте пока этого и многих других вещей делать не могут. Я, например, делаю это намного лучше любой современной программы. С другой стороны, если вы, например, сможете мне выдать аккуратный алгоритм выпадения выигрышных лотерейных шаров за некую историю назад в форме двухмерного графика, то я смогу с высокой степенью вероятности определить следующую комбинацию выигрышных номеров.

Gambler

The Day the NASDAQ Died (tune of American Pie)

Отлично! я этого раньше не слышал. Зря они только "Lenin read a book of Marx" выкинули.